2023 NFL Mock Draft Version 3
Post Free Agency Mock
With Free Agency largely completed and the draft fast approaching, here is my latest NFL mock draft. It is 3 rounds. This is a predictive mock and not what I believe should happen. A new mock will be posted in about a week with more rounds, so keep an eye out for it.
1. Carolina Panthers (from Chi): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
After trading a considerable package of picks to move up to number one, the Panthers have a specific Quarterback in mind. All indications are that it is a toss-up between Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. One lesson that I have learned is when deciding between two players to mock, go with the better prospect. This is Bryce Young. The only knock on him is his small size, but he has proven to be durable and can excel throwing over the middle of the field. So is his size really a problem? Young has the anticipation, mental processing and pocket awareness to be a high level quarterback.
2. Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
We all know that the Texans prefer Bryce Young, and this is leading to commentary that they could pass on a quarterback here if Young is gone. But this is nonsense that would get Nick Caserio fired. You don't gamble by trying to trade up for the 3rd or 4th best quarterback, when the top two are far superior prospects. When it is time to turn in the card, the Texans will do the obvious and draft a quarterback. In this mock, that is C.J. Stroud. Stroud gives the Texans a highly accurate quarterback with good anticipation. He will be a good fit in the highly structured wide-zone offense.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
The Cardinals will either trade this pick or select Will Anderson, and I am not sure who is willing to trade up for a quarterback now. The Cardinals not only need to revamp their defensive line, they need to infuse their roster with talent. Will Anderson Jr. is the best player available, and will help to fill the void left by J.J Watts retirement.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The Colts arguably have the biggest need at quarterback, and it is time they stop relying on veterans. With Stroud gone, who is likely Chris Ballard's top Quarterback, he now needs to choose between Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. With Anthony Richardson's strong combine performance and greater upside, he is the pick.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Den): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Following the conclusion of their season, Pete Carroll said "We are going to have to become more dynamic upfront...We have to rush the passer better". While draft season is lying season, coaches are honest in January. Given this, I expect the Seahawks to heavily invest in their front seven. Jalen Carter is not only the best front seven prospect available, he is the best overall prospect available. His arrest and horrible pro day have been discussed endlessly, but in the end talented players go early, barring major concerns. And Carter's concerns, while significant, are not major.
6. Detroit Lions (from LAR): Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
The Lions have focused heavily on drafting premium positions, especially along the lines. Tyree Wilson gives the Lions another rusher to pair with Aidan Hutchinson. He has the ability to play both 5-tech and out wide.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
While many are mocking Will Levis here, and he is available, I don't believe the Raiders moved on from Derek Carr to play a rookie Quarterback who needs development. Josh McDaniels runs an offensive system demanding a high percentage of completions, and Levis is not that Quarterback. Instead, they go with the best available player, which could either be Christian Gonzalez or Devon Witherspoon. Since the Raiders run a mix of man and zone, they go with the more versatile player in Gonzalez.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Atlanta has needed to upgrade its pass rush for awhile, and a large part of the reason is because they have not spent significant draft capital on the defensive line recently. Drafting Nolan Smith can change this. He has the athletic upside to become a top edge rusher and his high motor will be a welcome addition to the team's culture.
9. Chicago Bears (from Car): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
After trading back and acquiring a number one Wide Receiver, the Bears can continue building around Justin Fields by turning their focus to their offensive line by drafting the best available offensive lineman, which is Paris Johnson Jr. Johnson is an athletic and long tackle, who has the upside to grow into a strong starter. He has the ability to thrive in the Bears zone blocking scheme.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO): Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
The Eagles love drafting lineman, and I expect that trend to continue with this pick. They are probably targeting Jalen Carter, and are probably willing to trade up for him, but unless he makes it past Seattle he will be hard to get. Instead, they focus on strengthening their offensive line with Peter Skoronski. Skoronski is a highly technical and versatile lineman and has the ability to play all five positions. This year he will compete with Cam Jurgens for the right guard spot while being the swing tackle. He then can be the successor for Lane Johnson when he retires.
11. Tennessee Titans: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Titans have heavily focused on scouting quarterbacks, and there is a lot of smoke about them trading up. While I don't see them trading up, it makes a lot of sense for them to draft a quarterback if one of the top four are available. Ryan Tannehill is in the final year of his contract and is 34 years old. It does not make sense to resign him. Will Levis has the upside to develop into a starting quarterback but will need some time to develop. He also has the tough blue-collar mentality that the Titans look for. He can sit behind Tannehill for the better part of this season before becoming the full time starter in 2024.
12. Houston Texans (from Cle): Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
Democo Ryan's defense in San Francisco was built around a strong defensive line and I imagine he plans to make it a focus in Houston as well. Given the desolate nature of their defensive line, expect them to draft one here. Myles Murphy proved his value with his great pro day numbers, showing that he has the explosiveness to thrive in this defense.
13. New York Jets: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
The Jets will look to prioritize an upgrade at edge, but with Nolan Smith and Murphy gone, they look elsewhere. Broderick Jones is a possibility, but with Mekhi Becton looking like he is in much better shape, they don't need to force a need pick. Instead they go best available player, which is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He is the best wide receiver this year and is likely to produce immediately. With Aaron Rodgers almost certainly being traded to the Jets, they will need to maximize their short Super Bowl window, which is why it makes sense to load up on as many wide receivers as possible.
14. New England Patriots: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
With Bill Belichick as head coach, the Patriots have often been a run heavy team, but without Tom Brady or any other top quarterback, it appears that they are doubling down on their run first approach. Bijan Robinson gives them an elite running back talent who can elevate their running game to the next level as both a runner and receiver. Paired with Rhamondre Stevenson, they would form the best one-two punch. Also, Belichick has employed a best player available approach regardless of position, and Robinson is clearly the best available.
15. Green Bay Packers: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
11 of the Packer's last 12 first round picks have defensive players and I don't see that changing now. The Packers are trying to transform themselves into a run-heavy defensive team. Plus, it is too early to draft any of the Tight Ends. They have a nice pair of edge rushers in Rashan Gary and Preston Smith, but little depth behind them. Also, Preston smith is on the wrong side of 30. So they draft the high upside Lukas Van Ness. His toughness will be appreciated early in his career as a run defender while he develops as a pass rusher.
16. Washington Commanders: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The Commanders continue to prioritize their defense as is evident by the large contract they just gave Daron Payne while already having Jonathan Allen on a large contract. While Devon Witherspoon isn't the best schematic fit, he has the all out play style that Ron Rivera covets. Plus, he will allow them to diversify their coverage.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
It is time for the Steelers to get serious about upgrading their offensive line as both of their current starting Offensive Tackles are subpar. Darnell Wright excelled at the Senior Bowl and combine, and will go much higher than many fans predict. He fits the mold of large powerful offensive linemen that embody the Steelers image. He would likely be their day one starter at Right Tackle.
18. Detroit Lions: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
While Cornerback is not really a need following their free agency moves, a team can never have too many Cornerbacks. Joey Porter Jr. is a high intensity and highly physical Cornerback who fits the mold of what Dan Campbell covets in a player.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
With the release of Donovan Smith, the Buccs have a massive hole at Left Tackle. They may move Tristan Wirfs to the left side, but the fact remains they only have one starting caliber Offensive Tackle on their roster. So this is a natural landing spot for Broderick Jones, who very well could go much higher.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
Under the Pete Carroll and John Schneider era, the Seahawks have prioritized drafting highly athletic prospects and running the ball. Darnell Washington is a rare athletic freak. Given that there is a strong correlation between the top Tight Ends and athleticism, expect Washington to go earlier than expected. However, it is his blocking ability that will get the Seahawks attention. The league is moving towards more 12 personnel to counter the high usage of Nickel coverages, while running the ball more. No TE prospect will have a bigger impact in the run game than Washington. While they do have Noah Fant, Will Dissly, and Colby Parkinson on their roster, only Dissly is under contract beyond this season.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Everyone knows the Chargers lack capable receivers outside of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Michael Mayer gives the Chargers a reliable pass catcher who excels in the short and intermediate range. He has the versatility to line up next to the tackle and block along with flexing out into the slot. He will be an immediate upgrade over Tre' Mckitty, which is important as it will allow them to effectively line up in 12 personnel.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Outside of Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton when he is lined up in the slot, the Ravens Cornerback group is awful. There just so happens to be a high-caliber Cornerback prospect available in Deonte Banks. Banks is a highly athletic and physical Cornerback, who excels in press-man on the outside but has ability to play in zone. He would allow the Ravens to continue playing man coverage at a fairly high rate.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
After releasing Adam Thielen, the Vikings never made any effort in replacing him during free agency, which is often an indication that they plan to draft a player of that position. In this case, that is a Wide Receiver. Zay Flowers is gaining a lot of steam in draft media, and for good reason. He is a quick and versatile receiver who can excel at making plays at all three levels of the defense.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: O'Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
Doug Pederson wants an offensive lineman with the first overall pick last year, but Trent Baalke drafted a defensive lineman. Now Pederson gets another lineman to protect Trevor Lawrence in O'Cyrus Torrence. Torrence will provide a much needed boast to the interior of their line.
25. New York Giants: John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota
While Wide Receivers are the popular options due to a big need at the position, the Giants have a bigger need at Center. They neglected the position during Free Agency, which is often an indication that a team intends to fill that need during the draft. While not a sexy pick, John Michael Schmitz is a day one starter, who will help them strengthen their running game.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
During the playoffs it became clear that the Cowboys need an upgrade at their number two Wide Receiver spot. And despite trading for Brandin Cooks, the Cowboys can still use an X receiver. Quentin Johnston is a height, weight, speed prospect that will appeal to the Cowboys flashy draft style.
27. Buffalo Bills: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
It seems like Ed Oliver could be traded, and if not, it is doubtful he is re-signed. Bryan Bresee would be his successor and likely an upgrade. He is an explosive Defensive Tackle who projects well as a 3-tech, who can also anchor against the run.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
The Bengals have a great trio at Wide Receiver with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, but Hayden Hurst leaves a lot to be desired at Tight End. Dalton Kincaide is an excellent receiving TE who can stretch the middle of the field.
29. New Orlean Saints (from SF): Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
With Alvin Kamara's legal troubles, there is a good chance he will be released. However, this would leave a major void at Running Back. Enter Jahmyr Gibbs whose running style has drawn comparisons to Kamara.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
As mentioned with their first pick, the Eagles need to replenish their defensive line after losing several players in free agency. Their biggest need is someone who can play the 3 and 4I techniques, which is where Calijah Kancey excels. He would form a formidable duo with Jordan Davis.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech
After releasing Frank Clark, the Chiefs could use an edge rusher to help them maintain leads. Keion White has the size and strength to fit their preferences at edge. Paired with George Karlaftis, the Chiefs would have a cheap pair of edge rushers for the next few seasons.
Round 2
32. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Chi): Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
33. Houston Texans: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
34. Arizona Cardinals: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
35. Indianapolis Colts: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
36. Los Angeles Rams: BJ Ojulari, EDGE, LSU
37. Seattle Seahawks (from Den): Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
38. Las Vegas Raiders: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
39. Carolina Panthers: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
40. New Orleans Saints: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
41. Tennessee Titans: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
42. Green Bay Packers (Mock Trade NYJ): Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
43. New York Jets: Joe Tippmann, OG, Wisconsin
44. Atlanta Falcons: Cody Mauch, OG, North Dakota State
45. Green Bay Packers: Blake Freeland, OT, BYU
46. New England Patriots: DJ Turner II, CB, Michigan
47. Washington Commanders: Steve Avila, OG, TCU
48. Detroit Lions: Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin
49. Pittsburgh Steelers: Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame
50. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
51. Miami Dolphins: Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
52. Seattle Seahawks: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State
53. Chicago Bears (from Bal): Adetomiwa Adebawore, EDGE, Northwestern
54. Los Angeles Chargers: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
55. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota): Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State
56. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee
57. New York Giants: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
58. Dallas Cowboys: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
59. Buffalo Bills: Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati
60. Cincinnati Bengals: Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
61. Chicago Bears (from SF): Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA
62. Philadelphia Eagles: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah
63. Kansas City Chiefs: Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor
Round 3
64. Chicago Bears: Derick Hall, EDGE, Auburn
65. Houston Texans: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
66. Arizona Cardinals: Tuli Tuipultou, EDGE, USC
67. Denver Broncos (from Indy): Zach Harrison, EDGE, Ohio State
68. Denver Broncos: Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Oklahoma
69. Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse
70. Las Vegas Raiders: Tyler Steen, OG, Alabama
71. New Orleans Saints: Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami
72. Tennessee Titans: Rashee Rice, WR, SMU
73. Houston Texans (from Cle): Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M
74. Cleveland Browns (from NY Jets): Gervon Dexter Sr. DT, Florida
75. Atlanta Falcons, Daiyan Henley: LB, Washington State
76. New England Patriots (from Car): Byron Young, EDGE, Tennessee
77. Los Angeles Rams (from NE): Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina
78. Green Bay Packers: Luke Wypler, C, Ohio State
79. Indianapolis Colts: (from Wash), Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State
80. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State
81. Detroit Lions: Sydney Brown, S, Illinois
82. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M
83. Seattle Seahawks: Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama
84. Miami Dolphins: Zacch Pickens, DT, South Carolina
85. Los Angeles Chargers: YaYa Diaby, EDGE, Louisville
86. Baltimore Ravens: AT Perry, WR, Wake Forest
87. Minnesota Vikings: Chandler Zavala, OG, NC State
88. Jacksonville Jaguars: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tulane
89. New York Giants: Henry To'o To'o, LB, Alabama
90. Dallas Cowboys: Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan
91. Buffalo Bills: Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas
92. Cincinnati Bengals: Isaiah McGuire, EDGE, Missouri
93. Carolina Panthers (from SF): DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Texas
94. Philadelphia Eagles: Jordan Battle, S, Alabama
95. Kansas City Chiefs: Zack Kuntz, TE, Old Dominion
96. Arizona Cardinals (Comp): Cameron Mitchell, CB, Northwestern
97. Washington Commanders (Comp): Nathaniel Dell, WR, Houston
98. Cleveland Browns (JC-2A): Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss
99. San Francisco 49ers (JC-2A): JL Skinner, S, Boise State
100. Las Vegas Raiders (JC-2A): Nick Herbig, LB, Wisconsin
101. San Francisco 49ers (JC-2A): Jartavius Martin, S, Illinois
102. San Francisco 49ers (JC-2A): Emil Ekiyor Jr., OG, Alabama