NFL Mock Draft 2024 version 1

Initial 2024 NFL Mock Draft

With the College football season starting today and the NFL season starting in less than two weeks, it is time for my first 2024 NFL Mock Draft. The draft order roughly follows the betting markets, but I did curate it a bit to fit in my predictions. I know that much will change between now and draft season, but this serves as a starting point, so don't get too upset.

I anticipate posting another mock around mid season.

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1. Arizona Cardinals: Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Let's not overthink this, Caleb Williams is the best prospect. He has the natural arm talent to be an all-pro caliber Quarterback, and the pocket presence to survive in the league. Arizona's roster is a mess and are the favorites to land the first overall pick. Plus, having Houston's first rounder also increases their chances significantly. While they have Kyler Murray under contract, it is unlikely he will ever play up to his large contract. Given that Arizona has a new front office and coaching staff, they have no loyalty to Murray. It would be in their best interest to trade Murray and start fresh with Williams.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

While Caleb Williams is the consensus number one Quarterback, Drake Maye is a close second. He has good arm talent and deceptively good athleticism. Tampa Bay is bottoming and will be looking to rebuild with a rookie Quarterback.

3. Indianapolis Colts: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

A year ago it was clear that Bryce Young, CJ Stroud and Will Anderson would likely be the first three picks. Even though the majority of the draft community over-thought this during draft season, they ended up being the first three picks. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Marvin Harrison Jr. are following in their footsteps as the clear-cut top three prospects. Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best Wide Receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson as he blends his athleticism with insanely smooth technique. While the Colts have a good receiver in Michael Pittman and a promising receiver in Alec Pierce, Harrison is the type of player you do not pass on. He should have the type of impact on Anthony Richardson's development as Ja'Marr Chase had on Joe Burrow's development.

4. Las Vegas Raiders: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

Like many, I am bearish on the Raiders and Jimmy Garoppolo. He is a mediocre Quarterback who was propped up by Kyle Shanahan and a talented offense. He never had the ability to carry an offense and routinely missed time. If the Raiders are bad enough to finish with a top five pick, look for them to bring in a new coach. New coaches tend to start over at Quarterback. This class lacks a clear cut third Quarterback at the moment, but there are a handful with the potential to elevate themselves into the position in Bo Nix, J.J. McCarthy, Quinn Ewers, and Riley Leonard. I believe Bo Nix is the most likely to do so as he has the experience that the others do not. If he builds on last year's breakout performance, he will be highly drafted.

5. Washington Commanders: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

Washington is a team to keep an eye out for dealing a king's ransom for Williams or Maye as they will almost certainly have a new coaching staff next season, but for this mock I will assume Sam Howell shows enough to warrant another year as the starting Quarterback. Instead they look to bolster his supporting cast. Olu Fashanu is the second best non-Quarterback prospect. He has the high-end athletic traits that team's covet along with a natural ability to pass protect.

6. Arizona Cardinals (from Hou): Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State

Almost every mock draft I see has Arizona selecting a Wide Receiver, and for good reason. They lack a number one receiver. However, I mostly see Marvin Harrison Jr. being the selection, which seems like a pipe dream as they are also likely to draft a Quarterback. Fortunately, Emeka Egbuka is a more obtainable prospect. He is a smooth and polished receiver with excellent short-area quickness and spatial awareness. I expect him to solidify his standing as a top-10 prospect.

7. Los Angeles Rams: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

The Rams' roster is so thin that they need to go with the best available prospect, which is Kool-Aid McKinstry. He has the length, athleticism and physicality to be a top 10 selection, especially given how highly teams have begun drafting Cornerbacks.

8. Tennessee Titans: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Tennessee is entering a rebuild, but they hope to have their future Quarterback in Will Levis. Now it will be time to build out an offense around him. Brock Bowers made an immediate impact as a true freshman and didn't look back last season. He is the rare Tight End that is worth a top 10 pick. He would provide the Titans with a great inline option as they remain a run heavy and play action heavy offense.

9. Atlanta Falcons: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

Like Washington, Atlanta is a potential team to watch that could be willing to pay a king's ransom for a QB. If Ridder disappoints, there is a good chance they bring in a new coach who would want to start fresh at QB. Atlanta would be a prime spot for a rookie with Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson. However, I am assuming Ridder perform well enough to fend off such a trade. Instead, they turn their attention to their defense. Before returning to school, Jared Verse was commonly mocked to them, so why not start off by mocking him to the Falcons.

10. Denver Broncos: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

While he has barely played so far, Amarius Mims has the physical traits that coaches drool over, with his size, length, power and athleticism. He is in prime position to have a breakout year, and secure top 15 draft standing. Garrett Bolles has a cap hit of $20 million in 2024 and releasing him would free up $16 million. If he doesn't return to 2020 form this season, he is likely to be replaced.

11. Chicago Bears: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

Chicago largely neglected their defensive line last offseason, so expect that to be a focus for them next offseason. They will need to address both the interior and edge. Dallas Turner has the natural athleticism and bend to excel at the next level.

12. Chicago Bears (from Car): Malik Nabers. WR, LSU

Expectations for DJ Moore are high, but Chicago could use someone across from him. Malik Nabers is a legitimate deep threat Wide Receiver who could allow Justin Fields to show off his deep passing ability.

13. Green Bay Packers: Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

Green Bay has selected a defensive player with 11 of their last 12 first round picks, and I don't see why this would change. Jer’Zhan Newton is a good run defender and has the explosiveness to be a good pass rusher.

14. New England Patriots: JC Latham, OT, Alabama

New England's starting Offensive Tackles are Trent Brown and Riley Reiff. While neither are a liability, they are both on the wrong side of 30. It is time for the Patriots to acquire some young talent. Like Mims, JC Latham is a traitsy offensive lineman who has tons of room to develop. Bill Belichick has a history of drafting offensive lineman early, along with drafting players from Alabama. So this is a strong pairing.

15. Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

Kirk Cousins is in the final year of his contract and the Vikings are in the midst of a rebuild. They don't have a Quarterback of the future on their roster, so their only practical options are to draft someone early or re-sign Cousins. J.J. McCarthy is a highly talented prospect who is in position to have a breakout year.

16. New York Giants: Barrett Carter, LB, Clemson

The Giants should continue to improve their underwhelming defense that currently lacks a playmaker outside of Dexter Lawrence. Barrett Carter is an incredibly athletic and instinctive Linebacker, who has the versatility to line up at multiple positions.

17. Cleveland Browns: J.T. Tuimoloau, EDGE, Ohio State

Cleveland acquired Za'Darius Smith, but he is only on a one year contract, so it would make sense to swoop up J.T. Tuimoloau to keep a strength a strength. Tuimoloau is a technically sound Edge Rusher with clear size and strength. He would make a great Strong-Side End across from Myles Garrett.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers: Maason Smith, DT, LSU

Outside of Cameron Heyward, their DL is underwhelming, and he won't be around much longer given that he is 35. Maason Smith is a high upside prospect who is expected to have a breakout season. He could help rejuvenate their defensive line to complement their wicked group of edge rushers.

19. Los Angeles Chargers: Demeioun Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

Khalil Mack is at the end of his career so the Chargers will need someone to complement Joey Bosa. With the Charger's re-signing Justin Herbert to a record contract, they will need to compensate by finding cheap talent at premium positions. Demeioun Robinson is another high upside prospect who is in line for a breakout season.

20. Miami Dolphins: Kalen King, CB, Penn State

Time is ticking for Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey, and they don't have much depth at boundary Cornerback beyond Cam Smith. Kalen King has both the physicality and athleticism coveted by Vic Fangio's defense.

21. New Orleans Saints: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

New Orleans' defense is getting old, and I expect them to focus on making that side of the ball younger. Cooper DeJean is a versatile and instinctive Defensive Back who could be an upgrade over Bradley Roby and an eventual successor to Marshon Lattimore.

22. Seattle Seahawks: Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington

In the last two drafts Seattle has spent significant resources upgrading their Cornerbacks, and they would be wise to strengthen their edge rushers. Bralen Trice has an impressive blend of speed and power, which allows him to excel at setting the edge.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

Jacksonville took a major gamble on the raw but high upside Trevon Walker, and so far it hasn't paid off. If he doesn't make big strides this season, it would be wise for them to draft someone else. Unlike Walker, Laiatu Latu is a technician who should be a pass rushing specialist as a rookie.

24. New York Jets: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

The story of the Jets preseason has been who awful their offensive line is. They are relying on a 38 year old Duane Brown at Left Tackle. Billy Turner is also almost 32, and Max Mitchell has struggled. Even if Mekhi Becton breaks out, they will still need a second starting offensive tackle. Joe Alt is a large and technically sound Left Tackle who would be expected to immediately earn a starting spot.

25. Detroit Lions: Andrew Mukuba, S, Clemson

The Lions have done a good job building up their roster, but they could use an impact player at safety. Andrew Mukuba has the quickness, versatility and aggressiveness to excel as a modern day safety.

26. Baltimore Ravens: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Baltimore's Cornerback depth has taken a hit over the last couple seasons, and it is time for them to bolster the unit. Nate Wiggins is a long and athletic Cornerback who has the ability to play both man and zone coverage.

27. Dallas Cowboys: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

Outside of CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks, who is getting old, the Cowboys do not have enough at Wide Receiver. Keon Coleman is a height, weight, speed prospect that will appeal to Jerry Jones and the Cowboys.

28. Cincinnati Bengals: Leonard Taylor III, DT, Miami

"The Bengals offense is about to get expensive, so they will need to compensate with players on rookie contracts on defense. With DJ Reader in the final year of his contract, they will likely need a defensive lineman to replace his production, even if it is not necessarily at Nose Tackle. Leonard Taylor III is long, explosive and holds his ground well."

29. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Paul, OT, Houston

This is an offensive focused team, and their offensive could use some reinforcements. Right Tackle Spencer Brown has been a disappointment and is a major liability. I am somewhat surprised they didn't draft Anton Harrison, and they may regret that choice. Patrick Paul allows them to make up for this. He has the elite arm length that the Bills covet, and his strong pass blocking skills makes him a natural fit in the Bill's pass heavy offense.

30. San Francisco 49ers: Graham Barton, OT, Duke

Trent Williams is 35 and already contemplated retiring this offseason, so San Francisco will need to find a successor to him sooner than later. Graham Barton has the explosiveness and run power required to play in the 49ers run heavy scheme.

31. Philadelphia Eagles: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

Philadelphia has three strong receivers in A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, but they could use an improvement beyond them. Xavier Worthy posses true deep speed and could provide another dimension to this offense.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: McKinnley Jackson, DT, Texas A&M

While Kansas City has a star in Chris Jones, they have a weakness opposite from him. Neither Derrick Nnadi nor Mike Danna have been good enough and are both free agents after the season. McKinnley Jackson is a Nose Tackle type who can be an upgrade.