With the NFL Draft less than a month away, it is time for me to post my initial mock draft.
This is what I believe teams will do, not necessarily what I would do.
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1. Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward, QB, Miami (Fla.)
All signs point towards Cam Ward going number one to the Titans. They have not made any moves at Quarterback, so unless they really want to go into the season with Will Levis as the starter, they are going to take Ward. Also, if they were interested in trading down, they would likely have accepted whatever offer the Browns or Giants offered them.
2. Cleveland Browns: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
Cleveland is probably on the fence about whether or not to take Shedeur Sanders. On one hand they will love the idea of getting a blue chip player in Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter, but on the other hand, can they pass on a potential franchise Quarterback when they have little at the position. When it comes down to it, their need at Quarterback will likely sway their decision. Plus, ownership just may force the pick here.
3. New York Giants: Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State
I anticipate the Giants signing either Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers before the draft. Given their Head Coach and General Manager's mandate to win now, they won't reach on a Quarterback here. Instead they go take one of the two blue chip players. Both Carter and Hunter make sense, but I imagine the Giants will have a slightly higher grade on Carter.
4. New England Patriots: Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado
The Patriots will be praying that two Quarterbacks get selected in the top three picks, so that they are guaranteed one of Carter or Hunter. In this scenario Travis Hunter is available, so he is the pick. Given that they are strong at Cornerback, he would primarily play Wide Receiver.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
Most mock drafts have Mason Graham going to Jacksonville, but there is no guarantee he is the pick. Liam Coen has made comments about wanting to upgrade the players around Trevor Lawrence. Here is their chance. Armand Membou has rare traits that are hard to find. This may be Jacksonville's one chance at getting a high caliber Offensive Tackle.
6. Las Vegas Raiders: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise St.
Ashton Jeanty to the Raiders has gained a lot of steam, and for good reason. Pete Carroll will want to establish the run and who better to do that with than with Jeanty. Carroll has not shied away from taking Running Backs early. Carroll is also looking for players who can make an immediate impact, and Jeanty is definitely that. One other strong possibility, if available, is Armand Membou. Carroll had three top 10 picks with Seattle, and two of them were used on Offensive Tackles. Membou would also fit the run first mentality.
7. New York Jets: Mason Graham, DL, Michigan
The Jets have little at Defensive Tackle beyond Quinnen Williams, hence Mason Graham makes a lot of sense. Aaron Glenn will likely want to establish a strong defensive identity in New York, and Graham's high motor would make him a great fit.
8. Carolina Panthers: Jalon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
General Manager Dan Morgan has spoken a lot about how much they want to improve their front seven. While they made some improvements in free agency, they still have a ways to go. Jalon Walker is the top available front seven player.
9. New Orleans Saints: Will Campbell, OG, LSU
The Saints have needs across the board, and should just draft the best available player. He should be an immediate upgrade at Left Guard.
10. Chicago Bears: Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
The Bears have done a great job filling their needs in free agency, but they have not addressed Running Back yet. Given that Ben Johnson will want to run a lot, they likely have Omarion Hampton high on their draft board. This may seem a little high for the second running back, but just remember how high Jahmyr Gibbs went.
11. San Francisco 49ers: Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
The 49ers have let go of several players, indicating that they are going through a mini rebuild and prioritizing the long-term over the short-term. Trent Williams will be 37 years old at the start of the season, so it is time for the 49ers to look for his successor. Given that the 49ers don't plan to pick this high again anytime soon, they should use this pick on a premium position. If Josh Simmons medicals are positive, he will go much higher than anticipated, as he has shown true Left Tackle ability.
12. Dallas Cowboys: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
It is finally time for the Cowboys to address their hole at Wide Receiver across from Lamb. They can find a Running Back in the second round, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to find starting Wide Receivers past the first round. Tetairoa McMillan is the Cowboy's best chance to find their X receiver.
13. Miami Dolphins: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
With Cam Smith failing to develop, the Dolphins have a big need for a Cornerback across from Jalen Ramsey. In each of the last three years, the Dolphins have used their first draft pick on a defensive player, and I expect that trend to continue. A disruptive Defensive Tackle is a possibility, but this is two high for Derrick Harmon and Walter Nolen. I don't see them drafting a safety here as Chris Grier has focused on premium positions in the first two rounds.
14. Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
The Colts need another playmaker for Anthony Richardson, and Tyler Warren can be such a mismatch weapon. The Colts don't have much at the position, so Warren would be expected to step in right away. If available, Will Johnson would also make a lot of sense since their biggest hole is at Outside Cornerback.
15. Atlanta Falcons: Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M
One day the Falcons will get serious about drafting Edge Rushers, just maybe this is the year. The uber athletic Shemar Stewart has the traits to develop into a star pass rusher, and is the type of player they should gamble on.
16. Arizona Cardinals: Kenneth Grant, DL, Michigan
Since Monti Ossenfort was hired as the General Manager, the Cardinals have focused on building up their lines. Given that they spent big on Josh Sweat, I don't think they spend more premium resources on EDGE. However, they could use a major presence in the interior.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
Given that Trey Hendrickson is their only quality defensive player, the Bengals need to just draft the best available defensive player. Which is Jihaad Campbell, who could easily go higher.
18. Los Angeles Rams (mock trade with Sea): Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
The Rams attempted to trade up for Brock Bowers, and since they haven't acquired a TE yet, I can see them making a move for one of the top two Tight Ends. Colston Loveland would give Sean McVay another mismatch weapon that he can have fun scheming up. Since it is highly unlikely either Tight End will make it too 26, they would need to trade up.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE, Boston College
They Buccs don't have many needs, but they could use another pass rusher. Donovan Ezeiruaku fits the highly productive profile that they look for.
20. Denver Broncos: Derrick Harmon, DL, Oregon
While Running Back is a strong possibility, especially if Omarion Hampton is available, don't overlook the Broncos taking advantage of this strong Defensive Line class. Given the way they were run over by the Bills in the playoffs, Defensive Line is a much bigger need than expected.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Grey Zabel, IOL, N. Dakota St.
If they don't sign Aaron Rodgers or re-sign Russell Wilson, Jaxon Dart is a possibility here, but he would be a major reach. They would be better off going after him in the second round. Beyond Quarterback, Interior Defensive Line is their biggest need, but with Grant and Harmon gone, they would be wise to look elsewhere. Instead, the versatile Offensive Lineman Grey Zabel makes a lot of sense, as they have question marks at both Tackle and Guard positions.
22. Los Angeles Chargers: Tyler Booker, IOL, Alabama
I expect the Chargers to continue prioritizing their lines. Tyler Booker just seems like the perfect Jim Harbaugh offensive lineman. While it wouldn't be obvious where he would line up, their interior offensive line can use some competition.
23. Green Bay Packers: Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia
I know fans want a Wide Receiver, but I am not convinced the Packers will change their tendencies and draft one in the first round. Instead I expect them to go with a defensive player. Mykel Williams checks off several boxes with the Packers guardrails, including age, height and weight.
24. Minnesota Vikings: Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas
I fully expect the Vikings to trade back and pick up more picks, but I am keeping trades to a minimum. The Vikings still have a big hole at Left Guard, and Kelvin Banks could be a day 1 upgrade. He would fit well with their zone blocking scheme. Plus, he could provide some insurance at Left Tackle in case Christian Darrisaw is not ready at the start of the season.
25. Houston Texans: Josh Conerly Jr., OT, Oregon
It is not a given that the Texans take an offensive lineman here, but Josh Conerly makes a lot of sense. Better the very mediocre Cam Robinson and the unproven Blake Fisher, there is a good chance he makes an immediate impact.
26. Seattle Seahawks (mock trade with LAR): Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
Seattle has glaring needs at Interior Offensive Line and Wide Receiver. Given that it is easier to address the Interior Offensive Line outside of the 1st round, I expect them to prioritize Wide Receiver. Matthew Golden gives them an outside receiver and fills the void of Tyler Lockett.
27. Baltimore Ravens: Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
The Ravens secondary was their weakest group last season, and their only addition has been Chidobe Awuzie. Jahdae Barron would primarily play in the slot, which allows Kyle Hamilton to stay at safety.
28. Detroit Lions : Donovan Jackson, IOL, Ohio State
If the Lions want to keep their offensive line a strength, they will need to bring in some reinforcements. Donovan Jackson seems like the type of high effort player that Dan Campbell covets.
29. Washington Commanders: Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall
The Commanders need to improve their defensive line, especially at edge. Mike Green would provide much needed juice for their pass rush. At this point in the draft, his talent is enough to outweigh his character concerns.
30. Buffalo Bills: Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
The Bills need to improve their safeties, and their luck out with their pick of the class. Nick Emmanwori not only gives the Bills a presence in coverage, he will help them against the run.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Walter Nolen, DL, Ole Miss
Offensive Line is the popular pick, but Defensive Line is the bigger need. Outside of Chris Jones, they have little at the position.
32. Philadelphia Eagles: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
Without any notable needs, the Eagles are free to select the best available player. While they have committed two 1st to Wide Receivers in recent years, they could use an upgrade in the slot. Emeka Egbuka would solidify their starting five skill players. He would also serve as a sudo replacement for Dallas Goedert, who is likely in his final season as an Eagle.
Round 2
33. Cleveland Browns: Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri
34. New York Giants: Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa St.
35. Tennessee Titans: TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State
36. Jacksonville Jaguars: Darius Alexander, DL, Toledo
37. Las Vegas Raiders: Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
38. New England Patriots: Quinshon Judkins, RB, Ohio State
39. Chicago Bears: Carson Schwesinger, LB, UCLA
40. New Orleans Saints: Tyleik Williams, DL, Ohio State
41. Chicago Bears: Aireontae Ersery, OT, Minnesota
42. New York Jets: Tre Harris, WR, Ole Miss
43. San Francisco 49ers: Nic Scourton, EDGE, Texas A&M
44. Dallas Cowboys: Shavon Revel Jr., CB, East Carolina
45. Indianapolis Colts: Jonah Savaiinaea, IOL, Arizona
46. Atlanta Falcons: Benjamin Morrison, CB, Notre Dame
47. Arizona Cardinals: Jalen Royals, WR, Utah St.
48. Miami Dolphins: Jared Wilson, IOL, Georgia
49. Cincinnati Bengals: Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky
50. Seattle Seahawks: Marcus Mbow, OT, Purdue
51. Denver Broncos: Mason Taylor, TE, LSU
52. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss
53. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jack Bech, WR, TCU
54. Green Bay Packers: Azareye'h Thomas, CB, Florida State
55. Los Angeles Chargers: Landon Jackson, EDGE, Arkansas
56. Buffalo Bills: James Pearce Jr., EDGE, Tennessee
57. Carolina Panthers: Elijah Arroyo, TE, Miami (Fla.)
58. Houston Texans: Xavier Watts, S, Notre Dame
59. Baltimore Ravens: JT Tuimoloau, EDGE, Ohio State
60. Detroit Lions: Josaiah Stewart, EDGE, Michigan
61. Washington Commanders: Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa
62. Buffalo Bills: Alfred Collins, DL, Texas
63. Kansas City Chiefs: Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss
64. Philadelphia Eagles: Cameron Williams, OT, Texas